Reflections on RSERBBL History, Review of the 2004 Season, and 2005�s Odds

By John Niccoli

AP Photo- John Niccoli, the founding father of the RSERBBL, provides a look at the past and predictions into the future.

DALLAS, TX �This year, the Odds Letter will give you a taste of �The RSERBBL According to Duck�. It will include interesting and uninteresting facts about the league. It will include unforgettable and forgettable moments in league history. There will be insults galore. With these things in mind, this year�s Odds Letter will be broken up into four parts: 1) Trying to make somebody else�s life miserable, 2) Review of RSERBBL History, 3) Review of the 2004 RSERBBL Season, and 4) Odds for 2005 Season.

TRYING TO MAKE SOMEBODY ELSE�S LIFE MISERABLE

Rich and Fritz enjoyed way too much success last year for my liking. Nobody wants to see either of them enjoy any success this year. In fact, they should pay for their success. This led me to a great idea � use the Odds Letter to sabotage their off-season plans. Sure, they may consider me a low-life for making their lives difficult. If yes, then I have accomplished my primary off-season goal.

So, please join me in kicking-off the 2005 RSERBBL season by trying to make Rich and Fritz suffer! Force them to throw good players back into the 2005 draft pool without compensation. In the weeks leading up to the 2005 draft, Rich and Fritz will certainly be very active in trying to recover the picks they sacrificed to make a run at the title. In fact, when they made their trades last year, they were probably counting on the fact that they will be able to recover some of their draft picks in the off season. But, they weren�t counting on this Odds Letter throwing a wrench into their plans.

If Rich or Fritz try and convince you to cough up a draft pick for one of their players in a pre-season trade, you should either:

1) Offer nothing, or 2) Make a take-it-or-leave-it offer of a mid-round draft pick, like a 15^th for a 22^nd for their very best players. Do not accept the second tier talent on Fritz and Rich�s roster while allowing them to keep their best players! This is exactly what they want you to do. They benefit without hurting their 2005 chances. In the meantime, you hurt your own chances. Here is why:

For some unknown reason, it has become common practice for members in this league to trade significant draft picks in pre-season deals (i.e., between a 5^th and 7^th for a late pick between 15^th and 20^th). Only a freakin� retard would trade away a pick in a pre-season trade!

Remember that Rich and Fritz are the ones that are in a position of weakness � not you! If they do nothing, they have to toss some really good players back into the pool without getting anything in return. On the other hand, if you do nothing, you can still draft an excellent player with your pick (i.e., Carlos Delgado, Eric Chavez, Jim Edmonds, Ben Sheets, etc.).

If you plan to protect nobody, it makes no sense to trade any pick. Why not keep your first round pick and take your chances in the draft lottery? You may get Ichiro, who will be available this year. It only makes sense to trade a pick if you already have two or three keepers that are 1^st/2^nd round caliber players. In that case, you may want to add another quality player to fill out your keeper list. However, this player must be substantially better than any player you could pick from the pool of unprotected players. Otherwise, you are much better off keeping your draft pick.

For example, as things stand now, Fritz would probably protect Beltran, Pujols, Santana and Isringhausen. So, what does this mean to everyone else? Fritz will be forced to throw Jim Thome, Jason Schmidt and any other player on his roster back into the pool without compensation. If you are interested in acquiring one of Fritz�s players, make him do something that he doesn�t really want to do. Make him trade Pujols or Beltran! If Fritz won�t trade Pujols or Beltran at a reasonable price, then cease all trade discussions. He has no choice but to throw Thome and Schmidt back into the draft pool. Then, select one of them � without giving him diddly-squat!

REVIEW OF RSERBBL HISTORY

The RSERBBL is entering its 17^th season. As if my bulging waistline, graying hair and receding hairline weren�t enough of an assurance, the age of our fantasy baseball league confirms that we are all starting to get old. The realization that the league is approaching two decades of existence has made me think about the past.

For those who have not been in the league since its inception, here is a little history lesson. In the Spring of 1989, I joined an AL East fantasy baseball league with a few RSE fraternity brothers that I didn�t like all that much (i.e., Bruce Goldstein, Ed Lewandowski). My first pick was Roger Clemens, which sounds reasonable even today. But, after the draft, I realized that this would not be a league that I would enjoy because: A) I didn�t really like the other league owners, and B) My best player was on the freakin� Red Sox.

So, I approached four other fraternity brothers that I liked even less (i.e., Wanker, Keith, Mormino and Nick) to form an AL West fantasy baseball league. It started out as a friendly league. Times have sure changed. The RSERBBL has evolved from a friendly league into an annual tradition of whining about cheaters, complaining about poorly written rules, complaining about Keith�s interpretation of the poorly written rules, finding legal loopholes in the rules, backstabbing one another, misinforming one another, and making public attempts to humiliate other owners.

Reflecting on the past also brings back some fond memories of 1989, the league�s first year. Jose Canseco, the human steroid, was coming off the first 40/40 season in major league history. Julio Franco also was in our league. He was 55 years old back then, which makes him 71 today. Losers like Steve Beuchele, Mark Gubicza and Cecil Espy were semi-useful fantasy players in 1989. Bigger losers like Mickey Brantley, Billy Joe Robidoux, Greg Walker, Tom Niedenfuer, Dave Otto and Geno Petralli occupied roster spots. Ah, the memories! The RSERBBL has enjoyed many highs, but it also has endured many lows. Some things are better than they used to be, and some things have not changed one iota. The league�s history has been captured below:

League Highlights

1989 � Nick, owner of the first selection, proudly announces Twins legend Gary Gaetti as the first ever pick in the RSERBBL

1990 � No Keith. Also, the year that Rich�s losing streak started

1993 � Seeing that the protected player list included Phil Plantier

1994 � The year Jeff joined the league. Without Jeff, Clancy would not be in the league. And, without Jeff and Clancy, we would not have the fortune of enjoying their never-ending Dumb and Dumber comedy routine.

1995 � Vegas trip #1 � Nick and Duck gather inside information by playing craps with Greg Vaughn and Fernando Vina

1996 � Vegas trip #2� everyone enjoyed seeing Nick threaten to kill Keith in the draft room.

1997 � Seattle trip � by adding two Seattle residents, every Mariner drafted since then has been taken three rounds too early

2001 � Mike Smith takes draft pick trading to a new level by sacrificing seven picks trying to win, but only finishes second.

2002 � Rich becomes commissioner. Owners are stunned to see transactions entered quickly, and statistics regularly updated.

2004 � Rich proves that the Curse of the Mormino is worse than the Curse of the Bambino

League Low Points

1991 � The year Keith rejoined the league. He also assumed commissioner duties. Unfortunately, Keith was our only choice. Prior to the Internet, nobody else in the league was geeky � um, I mean computer savvy enough, to know how to update the stats.

1992 � Keith and Rich wrote a set of rules. There were some good rules, but many rules were written to further their personal agendas. In their top-secret discussions, they both agreed that they had young sluggers that they wanted again next year (i.e., Frank Thomas, Cecil Fielder). So, even though nobody else had requested a player protection rule, the rule was added. It has been there ever since.

1993 � Duck finishes first and second in the same year � he wins, and the team he picked for Andre finishes second

1995 � Keith is caught cheating red-handed. He picks up a player, enters it on the transaction list, publishes it on his web page, but then later changes to Melvin Nieves after Nieves hits a couple of home runs. Keith denies guilt, and says he simply typed in the wrong name, as if anyone with half a brain ever believed that BS.

1999 � Keith wins his only official league championship

2001 -- Fritz justifies a late season trade with Bob by saying that Albert Pujols wasn�t protectable, but he has protected him ever since.

2002 � Bob�s computer program outsmarts everyone and wins the league

Things that were a lot better in 1989

• None of the owners knew who Fritz was
• The Red Sox hadn�t won a World Series in over 70 years
• Keith had not yet reproduced
• We were all irresponsible, snot-nosed punks who drank beer 18 hours every day

Things that are a lot better in 2005 (than in 1989)

• Nick, Wanker and Duck now live over 750 miles away from Keith
• The Internet has eliminated the need for a nine person phone chain on draft day
• The league has Jeff, who can only contend if he trades all of his draft picks for Clancy�s mediocre players
• Nobody respects Wanker�s baseball knowledge

Things that are the same as they were in 1989

• Ken knows more about Boston-area high school hockey than major league baseball
• Keith�s hair is black, just as it was in 1989, even though it was gray about seven years ago.
• Jamie Moyer was a mediocre pitcher in fantasy baseball

REVIEW OF THE 2004 RSERBBL SEASON

Fritz won last year. Yip-pity-freakin�-doo-dah! I could take the approach of complimenting Fritz on his good draft picks and trades, but nobody wants to read about that. Most people would rather read insults like, �A big reason that Fritz won involved no skill�. Two of his keepers were among the top four players in all of fantasy baseball. Even a knucklehead like Fritz could do well with Pujols and Beltran as the centerpiece of their offense. In fact, all four of Fritz�s protected players were all four first/second caliber players. This gave him a huge advantage over every other owner going into the 2004 draft, except for Keith which will be discussed in a moment.

Rich made a noble attempt to catch Fritz at the trade deadline, but the only thing his flurry of draft pick trades really accomplished was to preserve Nick�s record of the largest margin of victory in league history. In retrospect, Rich blundered badly, as he does every year. He should have made those trades two months earlier. He needed a few more points to pass Fritz in the HR and RBI categories. In addition, Rich made one terrible trade. If you�re going to trade away picks, trade for good players, not ERA-killer Jose Contreras. Rich�s team ERA proceeded to be Contreras-sized, and he watched his team drop from first to fourth in ERA.

The other money winners were Fribble, Cohen, Jeff and Bob. Fribble did finish third, but it was nice to see that he was yet another RSERBBL owner that fell into the Ken Griffey Jr. trap. After Griffey hit a couple of homers the first two months of the year, Fribble traded for him. It didn�t take long for Griffey to suffer another season-ending injury. Griffey only hit two home runs for Fribble�s team. As if Griffey�s poor performance wasn�t punishment enough, Fribble will also hurt by Griffey this year. Since he gave up a fourth rounder for Griffey, he will be missing a key draft pick, and he will be limited to only protecting three players.

Jeff�s 5^th place finish was also noteworthy, because it was the best finish for the 11 year veteran. What does it say about your baseball knowledge when it takes you eleven years to surpass Clancy�s best finish? Dan and Sam looked like contenders for a few months, but after the All Star break, their players started playing down to everyone else�s expectations.

Keith (whose RSE nickname was Tweety) had the worst draft day performance in 2004. This should come as no surprise. Keith also had a terrible performance on draft day in 2001. In his honor, the RSERBBL has created the Tweety Award, which will be awarded to the owner with the worst draft performance. To illustrate why Keith won this year�s Tweety Award, consider that he protected three first/second round caliber players (A-Rod, Sheffield and Smoltz). He also drafted four or five pretty good players. Yet, he managed to only finish in 12^th place in an 18 team league. Thanks to the likes of Eddie Perez, Juan Gonzalez, Damian Rolls, Brett Myers, Randall Simon and Alex Cintron, Keith got zero production from eleven players he drafted in the later rounds (about half of his team).

As bad as Keith�s performance was, the owner who deserves the most abuse was our last place finisher, Jay. After two months, Jay had a bunch of players on the DL. He feverishly pawned off his players for draft picks. Jay might be proud of all the 2005 draft picks he acquired. But, if you review his trades from last year and what his team could have done, he should kick himself in the nuts!

Jay traded away four players who had monster years after they left his team � Danny Kolb, Jim Thome, Brad Lidge and Johan Santana. He also traded away Dave Roberts, who was no great shakes, but the extra steals would have helped. Consider if he had kept those five players, and picked up a couple of decent free agents for his injured players. It is reasonable to assume that Jay�s team would have had about 55 more saves, 50 more HRs, 25 more SBs, 150 more RBI�s, 20 more Wins, 250 more Ks, and subtracted 0.40 from his team ERA.

If you plug in these extra stats into Jay�s final stats, this would have given him 100 points � good enough for third place. Then, consider that he traded Kolb to Rich (2^nd place), and Thome and Santana to Fritz (1^st place). Kolb helped Rich gain six points in saves. Rich was around the 100 point mark until he pawned off four draft picks in August, so Jay certainly would have finished ahead of Rich. Not acquiring Thome and Santana would have cost Fritz about 21 points (four in HRs, two in RBIs, five in wins, six in Ks and four in ERA). If Jay had kept his top players, and if he was aggressive in trading away picks (like Rich) � yes, he could have won!

On the bright side, no owner has ever owned 18 picks in the first 10 rounds entering a draft. If Jay does not finish in the top three this year, next year�s Odds Letter will dish out even more abuse in his direction. Then again, perhaps Jay�s plan is to build for 2006. If he trades away all 18 of these players by the end of April 2005, he could own 28 picks in the first eight rounds of the 2006 draft.

As for yours truly, my run of four years finishing in the top two came to a crashing halt. I�d like to tell you that I purposely picked a bad team to give someone else a chance to win. But, the truth is that even the great ones have an off year every now and then! But, there were a few bright spots in my mostly dismal season. I finished in a semi-respectable tenth place, which isn�t bad considering that I managed to pick up six extra draft picks. I also engineered the biggest trade in league history, a 26 player deal with Nick, which ended up being fairly lopsided in my favor. In fact, this trade will even help me this year, because it allows me to protect a guy with better-than-Gagne stats (Lidge).

2005 ODDS

Now, it�s time to turn our attention to this year. The draft is scheduled for April 9^th, 2005. For me, baseball draft day is my favorite day of the year. That�s when it all comes together � the draft preparation, the last-minute attempts to change rules, and finding out who is on your team. Draft day also offers hope to everyone. Every owner believes they have a chance to win. But, some owners have a better chance to win than others, as summarized in the 2005 Odds below: